Standard Chartered shifts $2T stablecoin target to 2030

After stablecoin supply held between $300 billion and $320 billion for 12 months, Standard Chartered moved its $2 trillion market forecast from 2028 to 2030, according to The Block’s report on the bank’s revised outlook. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, attributed the delay to stalled supply growth.

The revised timing separates growth in stablecoin use from growth in the amount of stablecoins in circulation.

Why did Standard Chartered move the target?

The bank kept its $2 trillion estimate but extended the timeline by two years after supply plateaued at about $309 billion this year. Kendrick described the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, saying it coincided with weak crypto market activity. He also pointed to earlier periods of flat or falling supply that were followed by renewed growth after crypto markets recovered.

The forecast is therefore conditional on a recovery in supply growth; the report does not say the $2 trillion level is already on track. The estimate concerns stablecoin market capitalization, while the near-term evidence cited by Kendrick shows a market that has stayed close to its current size.

How is stablecoin activity changing while supply stalls?

Transfer activity has increased even as supply has flattened. Kendrick said raw on-chain transfer value reached a monthly record of $19 trillion in May, while monthly volume averaged just under $10 trillion so far this year, compared with $4 trillion in 2025, The Block reported.

Average monthly stablecoin velocity, or how many times each dollar changes hands, rose to around 30 this year from 15 in 2025, Kendrick said. The figures indicate more frequent circulation of existing tokens alongside the pause in aggregate supply growth. The report also recorded different patterns for the two largest dollar stablecoins: USDT’s monthly velocity stayed near seven, while USDC’s rose to around 80 from 45.

Where does Standard Chartered expect competition?

The bank expects the sharpest competition in developed-market payments and transactions, where USDC is used more than USDT, according to The Block’s account of Kendrick’s analysis. Tether’s USDT is used mainly for dollar savings in emerging markets, while USDC has higher velocity and is used more for payments, financial transactions and early payments between AI agents.

Kendrick named Open USD, M^0 and A+, a planned shared stablecoin network for banks, as potential challengers. He said how issuers and payment networks divide yield from reserves could shape which competitors gain market share. Regulation is another risk to the $2 trillion forecast: Kendrick said its outcome will depend partly on whether other countries adopt rules similar to the US GENIUS Act and how those rules affect stablecoin use.

Sources

• The Block’s report on the bank’s revised outlook — theblock.co